#Weekly #Review - Financial Markets & Economics: Commentaries by Fabian Wintersberger

  While the European Central Bank did not change its monetary policy last week, the US Federal Reserve followed this week. Unsurprisingly, Powell stated that the Fed will stick to the plan but became more dovish on the near term outlook. Again he claimed that the Fed hat to 'make sure that markets are functioning' in March 2020 through its' monetary policy measures. I consider this statement 'questionable', at least if you observe the recent side effects of those policies... I observe the ongoings in the financial markets for several years now and the more I watch the things which take place there, the more I feel that something within the system went terribly wrong. However, the market itself does not seem to care. Participants are well trained to adopt their narrative if the situation is changing. Buy the dip  still works fine. Maybe this is the surrounding that John Maynard Keynes (with whom I agree very rarely) described as 'herding'. At least we can qua...

  Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now -> German Version Remember when Donald Trump said that a President Biden would hurt the stock market? Well, apparently markets did not get the memo: The day Joseph Biden and Kamala Harris were inaugurated, the American stock market indices reached another new all time high. Stock markets in Asia and Europe did very well to; it seems that market participants are in a good mood.  rinnern Sie sich daran, als Donald Trump vor der Präsidentschaftswahl ständig wiederholt hat, dass ein Präsident Biden schlecht für den Aktienmarkt wäre? Nun, es scheint als ob der Markt hat das Memo nicht bekommen hat: Just am Tag der Inauguration von Joseph Biden und Kamala Harris erreichten die amerikanischen Indizes neue Allzeithochs. Auch im Rest der Welt, in Europa und Asien waren die Indizes im Aufwärtstrend, die Marktteilnehmer scheinen guter Dinge zu sein. In view of the prospect of more stimulus and hopes of a resurgence in consumption due to a return to n...

    Vieles Hängt Vom Dollar Ab  -> English Version Das Jahr 2021 ist erst wenige Tage alt und dennoch wünscht sich mancher bereits das Jahr 2020 zurück. In Europa ist nach der jüngsten erneuten Verschärfung der Corona-Pandemie noch lange kein Ende des europaweiten Lockdown in Sicht während in den Vereinigten Staaten Trump-Anhänger das Kapitol stürmten und die Nationalgarde ausrücken musste, nachdem die Demokraten nach den Senats-Wahlen im Georgia auch dort nun die Mehrheit haben. Dies hat 10-jährige US Renditen wieder deutlich über die 1 % Marke geschoben und auch die Aktienmärkte reiten – getrieben von der Hoffnung nach noch größeren Stimulus Programmen – von einem Hoch zum nächsten. Starten wir in eine Neuauflage der „Roaring Twenties“? Vieles wird von der weiteren Entwicklung des US-Dollars abhängen, vor allem wie sich die US-Zinsen weiter entwickeln.   Das neue Jahr wird extrem spannend werden, so viel steht bereits jetzt fest. Waren die Bewertungen schon im D...

   It's All About The Dollar  ->  German Version Although 2021 is just a few days old, some of us wish that we'd be back in 2020 already. After recent - again harsher - lockdowns in Europe because of the pandemic there's still no end in sight. On the other side of the pond Trump supporters have made their way into the Capitol and the National Guard was needed to normalize things in Washington. After the recent Elections for Senate seats in Georgia, the Democrats now have gained a majority in the Senate as well, making the blue wave complete. This and prospects of possible inflation has caused a rise in US treasury yields which are now back at well above 1 %. In the meantime stock markets continued in their wild uptrend in hope for an additional, even bigger, stimulus program. Some politicians already swear us to the coming "Roaring Twenties". Are we heading for a golden decade? One key element to observe will be the further development of the US-dollar and US y...